The October story in markets has been one of worry over the perception of tightening polls in the Presidential Election, making investors fear a repeat of 2016; the S&P 500 declined nearly 3% as there is a perception that anything short of a Democratic sweep will result in a less than satisfactory fiscal package as well as further mismanagement of the Covid pandemic. Additionally, these jitters managed to halt the relentless run in Soybeans – as well as in the insanely hot solar stocks as the TAN ETF rose an astonishing 215% since the March lows as the market discounted higher probabilities of a Democratic win in November.

It is remarkable that after all this, the average American still perceives Trump as being better on the economy while having more trust in Biden on handling the pandemic. This completely misses the reality that a catastrophic pandemic that brings labor to a halt is very much the essence of managing an economy; in other words, the basics of an effectively run economy start with ensuring that the utilization of the factors of production can be maximized.

As we have come closer to Election Day, pundits have taken to forecasting another unexpected Trump win in a shameless bid to be seen as a genius after the fact by correctly predicting the impossible. While it is certainly possible that Trump wins re-election, that idea is not at all supported by poll data nor is it evident in what will certainly be close to a 100-year record turnout for US presidential elections.