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robinhood

There is a loud chorus calling for a re-test of the recent lows around 2,200 based on the empirical fact that almost every major market sell-off of more than 20% has a retest of the lows, but that looks a bit complacent and as the old saying goes, in markets “the obvious rarely happens, and the unexpected constantly occurs.”Market Update, 24 March 2020

  • Since the market lows of March world governments and central banks pulled together and successfully avoided having a health and economic crisis also become a financial crisis by pumping nearly $10 trillion in liquidity. Much to the disbelief of most market participants, equities have staged a steady recovery with the S&P 500 returning nearly 13% in April followed by a 4.5% return in May. The reality is that while most were too busy gawking at how much worse things could get, the massive injection of liquidity into markets was busy utterly overwhelming economic and financial fundamentals, with the Fed clearly leading the way.



  • Between the Fed’s intervention and extremely loose fiscal policy enacted via more generous unemployment protection and stimulus checks deposited direction into Americans’ bank accounts, financial conditions promptly recovered. Surely enough, the combination of underemployment, lockdowns, spare cash and the Internet 2.0, beckoned Millennials to download the Robinhood apps and participate in financial markets. Indeed, the S&P 500’s nearly 20% run up from the March lows has been mostly enjoyed by retail investors, with institutions largely staying on the sidelines, in what has become the latest humbling of the market consensus. Notably, the lion’s share of the returns accrued to tech names as well as other brands with which Millennials are most familiar.

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